A machine learning study, built with two teammates, testing
whether a neighborhood's wealth and demographics can predict local
crime. From six public Tucson GIS datasets, we built a Python
pipeline to clean, merge, and normalize neighborhood income,
population, age, race, and education data against 2024 police
incident records, then trained two elastic net regression models:
one for the likelihood of violent crime, one for the likelihood a
weapon was involved. Each was tuned with 10-fold cross validation
and evaluated using R-squared, MSE, RMSE, and residual analysis. I
found and assembled the datasets, trained and evaluated the model
for our first hypothesis, wrote the introduction, and helped shape
the questions we set out to answer. Our original theses did not
have enough usable data behind them, so we rebuilt the entire
project around new questions and a new dataset partway through.
That reset taught me the most: how to scope a data problem around
the data that actually exists, and how to read a weak result
honestly instead of forcing a story the numbers do not support.